The local impacts of the socio-economic scenarios have been calculated at the local level and with high spatial resolution of four socio-economic and climatic scenarios on both biogenic and anthropogenic CO2 emission fluxes and their consequences on CO2 concentrations. The link between socio-economic scenarios and modeling is done through land use and anthropogenic emissions. Land uses have been generated at local resolution using DEMETER (PNLL), emissions have been generated with the EMIMO model (UPM). Climate, biogenic emissions and CO2 transport have been modeled at a local scale with the WRF/Chem-VPRM model. To know the impacts, two simulations have been run: R1 with the current socio-economic scenario of 2018 and R2 with future socio-economic scenarios, the impacts are calculated are R2–R1. The simulations are run for the period 2015–2050 for national, regional and urban domain over Madrid, Spain. The simulations are driven by global climate model outputs used as boundary conditions to dynamically downscale four specific scenarios: from SSP126 (Sustainability), SSP245, SSP370, to SSP585 (Fossil-Fueled Development). This work is related with the activities of the DISTENDER project. DISTENDER is an EU-funded project to develop a methodological framework that guide the integration of adaptation and mitigation strategies through participatory approaches supported by quantitative and qualitative analysis that facilitates the understanding of climate change risk and interactions, synergies and trade-offs of the strategies. The simulations will facilitate to understand how change the environmental and socio-economic conditions, such as temperature, land-use localization and atmospheric CO2 levels in the future under different scenarios.

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Impacts of Localised Socio-economic Scenarios on CO2 Emission Fluxes Driven by Downscaled Climate Scenarios

  • Roberto San Jose,
  • Juan L. Pérez-Camanyo,
  • Miguel Jiménez-Gañan

摘要

The local impacts of the socio-economic scenarios have been calculated at the local level and with high spatial resolution of four socio-economic and climatic scenarios on both biogenic and anthropogenic CO2 emission fluxes and their consequences on CO2 concentrations. The link between socio-economic scenarios and modeling is done through land use and anthropogenic emissions. Land uses have been generated at local resolution using DEMETER (PNLL), emissions have been generated with the EMIMO model (UPM). Climate, biogenic emissions and CO2 transport have been modeled at a local scale with the WRF/Chem-VPRM model. To know the impacts, two simulations have been run: R1 with the current socio-economic scenario of 2018 and R2 with future socio-economic scenarios, the impacts are calculated are R2–R1. The simulations are run for the period 2015–2050 for national, regional and urban domain over Madrid, Spain. The simulations are driven by global climate model outputs used as boundary conditions to dynamically downscale four specific scenarios: from SSP126 (Sustainability), SSP245, SSP370, to SSP585 (Fossil-Fueled Development). This work is related with the activities of the DISTENDER project. DISTENDER is an EU-funded project to develop a methodological framework that guide the integration of adaptation and mitigation strategies through participatory approaches supported by quantitative and qualitative analysis that facilitates the understanding of climate change risk and interactions, synergies and trade-offs of the strategies. The simulations will facilitate to understand how change the environmental and socio-economic conditions, such as temperature, land-use localization and atmospheric CO2 levels in the future under different scenarios.