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The effect of different pathways to climate neutrality until 2045 on air pollutant emissions and subsequently on regional air quality in Europe is investigated with a model chain that reaches from an integrated assessment model for energy demand to a complex chemistry transport model. The model results show that NO \(_x\) emissions and consequently NO \(_2\) concentrations will decrease significantly by 40%–80% from 2020 until 2045. The main sectors that contribute to these reductions are transport and buildings. Indirect effects of NO \(_x\) emission reductions on NO \(_2\) concentrations more distant to the sources are visible over sea areas. According to the scenarios, Europe will also experience much lower concentrations of SO \(_2\) , O \(_3\) , and PM \(_{2.5}\) . NH \(_3\) is the only pollutant that is expected to increase in concentration. Possible reasons will be discussed.

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Effects of a European Energy Transformation on Air Quality

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • V. Matthias,
  • D. A. Schwarzkopf,
  • D. Bantje,
  • S. Rauner

摘要

The effect of different pathways to climate neutrality until 2045 on air pollutant emissions and subsequently on regional air quality in Europe is investigated with a model chain that reaches from an integrated assessment model for energy demand to a complex chemistry transport model. The model results show that NO \(_x\) emissions and consequently NO \(_2\) concentrations will decrease significantly by 40%–80% from 2020 until 2045. The main sectors that contribute to these reductions are transport and buildings. Indirect effects of NO \(_x\) emission reductions on NO \(_2\) concentrations more distant to the sources are visible over sea areas. According to the scenarios, Europe will also experience much lower concentrations of SO \(_2\) , O \(_3\) , and PM \(_{2.5}\) . NH \(_3\) is the only pollutant that is expected to increase in concentration. Possible reasons will be discussed.