Future Disruptions Superintelligence, Singularity, and Quantum Computing
摘要
The obvious difficulty in preparing and writing a text on AI is the almost daily changes taking place in every facet of the emerging technologies. As soon as an article or book is written, it becomes somewhat outdated, albeit most of the information remains relevant for several years particularly when discussing regulatory aspects thereof. A person approaching his or her ninth decade will have witnessed at an early age the first jet nosily speeding across the skyline, typing on an Underwood typewriting machine, and seeing a person on a horse and wagon delivering ice to mainly local stores. Progression slowly took place, hastened by the onset of World War II. Thus, the pace through the 1970s was relatively slow, although at that time, elderly persons longed for simpler times as every prior generation has mourned. The advent of computers, with monstrous IBM machines dominating the landscape, commenced a new era truly unlike all prior eras with the possible exception of the use and abuse of atomic energy. When picture and other tubes were replaced by miniaturization of chips, the race commenced, often in garages and comparable facilities. Each new decade featured futurists who predicted what the next decade would bring as, e.g., the Walt Disney World’s concept of the ideal world of a husband off to his place of employment and his wife relishing the new gadgets that would simplify daily chores. Almost no one could possibly have envisioned the revolution that was to take place. Not long ago, a person asked how far we can predict the future of technology may have stated five-ten years. A prediction today would likely shorten the prediction to 1–2 years.