The Climate and Land-Use Change Feedback
摘要
The Congo Basin, home to the world’s second-largest tropical rainforest, plays a pivotal role in regulating global climate through carbon sequestration, rainfall recycling, and temperature regulation. However, the acceleration of the land-use changes—driven by agriculture, logging, mining, and urbanization—is eroding these vital ecosystem services. This chapter examines potential feedbacks between land-use change and climate, focusing on how deforestation and degradation disrupt biogeophysical processes and amplify the regional and global climate risks. Using observational evidence and modeling approaches, we show that continued forest loss could transform the Congo Basin from a net carbon sink to a carbon source, exacerbate extreme events such as droughts and floods, and destabilize regional rainfall systems. Future scenarios indicate that deforestation could reduce rainfall by up to 10% and raise surface temperatures by about 0.7 °C by mid-century (~2050). Unfortunately, these impacts extend beyond central Africa and influence tropical circulation and global climate stability. To safeguard the Congo Basin’s ecological integrity and climate functions, urgent action is required—through integrated land-use planning, forest conservation, climate-smart agriculture, and robust governance. The chapter underscores that the Congo Basin is both a frontline victim of global change and a critical lever for achieving climate resilience worldwide.