Design allowables for composite laminates are associated with a specific level of confidence and are used to establish the maximum allowable material property values for design purposes. In MIL-HDBK-17, the A-basis allowable is associated with a confidence level of 95% for the 1st percentile of the samples. Thus, A-basis material properties are expected to be met or exceeded with probability of 99% by at least 95% of the material population. Certifying every material property of a laminate design at a 1% probability of failure can lead to an over-conservative design, especially when failure modes require simultaneous deficiencies in multiple independent material properties, a scenario in which the probability of failure of the composite part decreases exponentially with the number of material properties. It can also lead to an inconsistent threshold for the probability of failure of the composite part since different geometric irregularities and loading conditions will lead to different relationships between the material properties and the design performance metric. We extend our previously introduced simulation-based analytical framework for design allowables by investigating the size effect of test coupons, and we present an alternative perspective on the design and certification of laminates that is based on the probability of failure of the composite part.

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Reliability-Based Design and Certification of Hybrid Composites

  • Philippe Hawi,
  • Zhengtao Yao,
  • Venkat Aitharaju,
  • Jay Mahishi,
  • Roger Ghanem

摘要

Design allowables for composite laminates are associated with a specific level of confidence and are used to establish the maximum allowable material property values for design purposes. In MIL-HDBK-17, the A-basis allowable is associated with a confidence level of 95% for the 1st percentile of the samples. Thus, A-basis material properties are expected to be met or exceeded with probability of 99% by at least 95% of the material population. Certifying every material property of a laminate design at a 1% probability of failure can lead to an over-conservative design, especially when failure modes require simultaneous deficiencies in multiple independent material properties, a scenario in which the probability of failure of the composite part decreases exponentially with the number of material properties. It can also lead to an inconsistent threshold for the probability of failure of the composite part since different geometric irregularities and loading conditions will lead to different relationships between the material properties and the design performance metric. We extend our previously introduced simulation-based analytical framework for design allowables by investigating the size effect of test coupons, and we present an alternative perspective on the design and certification of laminates that is based on the probability of failure of the composite part.