Amid the ongoing Russo–Ukraine War, the European Union’s reliance on sanctions as a principal policy tool reveals deeper structural weaknesses and strategic incoherence, warranting a critical assessment of its overall approach. This chapter critically analyses the EU’s sanctions strategy against Russia, exposing contradictions and strategic shortcomings. Despite strong Western support, Ukraine’s survival as a sovereign state remains uncertain. The EU’s dependence on sanctions as a means of coercion has yielded limited results while exacerbating internal economic and political strains, particularly within the federalism–confederalism nexus. This stands in contrast to shifting US priorities, especially under a prospective second Trump presidency, which may favour ceasefire negotiations over continued military engagement. The analysis further highlights the EU’s internal divisions and declining geopolitical leverage, questioning its ability to influence the war’s trajectory or shape a post-war settlement. Ultimately, the chapter frames the EU’s strategy as one of inaction and illusion, relying on sanctions as a substitute for a coherent vision, thereby risking further erosion of its relevance in a rapidly evolving international political environment. The chapter also provides an overview of the broader thematic discussions in this volume.

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The Paradox of Sanctions and the EU’s Strategic Dilemma

  • Viktor Jakupec

摘要

Amid the ongoing Russo–Ukraine War, the European Union’s reliance on sanctions as a principal policy tool reveals deeper structural weaknesses and strategic incoherence, warranting a critical assessment of its overall approach. This chapter critically analyses the EU’s sanctions strategy against Russia, exposing contradictions and strategic shortcomings. Despite strong Western support, Ukraine’s survival as a sovereign state remains uncertain. The EU’s dependence on sanctions as a means of coercion has yielded limited results while exacerbating internal economic and political strains, particularly within the federalism–confederalism nexus. This stands in contrast to shifting US priorities, especially under a prospective second Trump presidency, which may favour ceasefire negotiations over continued military engagement. The analysis further highlights the EU’s internal divisions and declining geopolitical leverage, questioning its ability to influence the war’s trajectory or shape a post-war settlement. Ultimately, the chapter frames the EU’s strategy as one of inaction and illusion, relying on sanctions as a substitute for a coherent vision, thereby risking further erosion of its relevance in a rapidly evolving international political environment. The chapter also provides an overview of the broader thematic discussions in this volume.