Measuring and Analysis of the Impact of Public Debt on Some Economic Development Indicators in Iraq for the Period (2004–2018) Using the (ARDL) Model
摘要
The issue of public debt is a significant challenge for developing nations, especially the least developed countries, due to its detrimental impact on economic and social development and its threat to financial and economic stability. The research aims to estimate the effects that public debt leaves on the indicators under study, represented by (gross domestic product, investment spending, spending on the health sector, exports, and education) using the Autoregressive Distributed Time Lags (ARDL) methodology, the researcher arrived at the increase in public debt by (1%) leads to a decrease in the gross domestic product, investment spending, spending on health, and exports by (0.90%), (2.95%), (2.79%), and (1.29%) respectively, that is, the presence of an adverse correlation between public debt and economic development indicators in Iraq during the research period. As the percentage of public debt increases, the percentage of economic development indicators decreases, and vice versa. The researcher recommended the necessity of not resorting to debt except within the narrowest limits, in addition to rationalizing unnecessary government consumer spending, working to increase the percentage of investment allocations in the general budget, and diversifying sources of income in a way that works to raise Rates of economic development.