Climate Change Impacts on Bridge Deterioration: A Markov Model Approach
摘要
Bridges are essential components of transportation infrastructure; however, their deterioration is expected to accelerate due to aging, growing traffic and the impacts of climate change and extreme weather events. Consequently, to ensure their safety and durability, efforts must be increased to achieve effective bridge maintenance management. Bridge deterioration modelling is an integral part of the bridge management process; however, current approaches to predicting bridge deterioration, which are primarily reliant on visual inspection data and homogeneous Markov models, fall short in capturing the evolving nature of deterioration processes over time. Recognizing this gap, this study investigates possible solutions to accommodate the changing dynamics of bridge deterioration over time, taking into account the factors that influence the deterioration process, specifically the effects of climate change. The paper studies climate projections under various emission scenarios and introduces a framework for developing non-homogeneous Markov models. This investigation is conducted with a practical perspective to evaluate its feasibility and suitability for implementation in bridge maintenance management practices.