Freshwater Loss of the Antarctica Ice Shelf Due to Ocean Warming Under CMIP6 Models
摘要
The IPCC underscores that global warming amplifies polar warming, a process where the Arctic and Antarctic regions warm at a faster rate than the global average, leading to significant mass loss from the Antarctic ice sheet and ice shelves, which reduces freshwater storage. Based on the 2020 observations of the Larsen C Ice Shelf (LCIS) and the CMIP6 models provided by the IPCC, we applied the multiple regression model and thermodynamic principles to predict the surface mass balance and basal melt rates of the LCIS under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios by the end of this century. Using an ice flow model, we projected the evolution of the LCIS from 2020 to 2100 and analyzed the trends in ice volume, ice shelf area, and average ice thickness by 2100. Our results indicate that under both scenarios, the ice shelf will vanish within this century, with an estimated lifespan of 80 years under the SSP1-2.6 scenario and 40 years under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. By 2100, the LCIS is expected to lose about 10,000 Gt of freshwater in both scenarios.