Analysis of the Spatial and Temporal Evolution Patterns of Precipitation and Extreme Characteristics in Shanghai
摘要
Global climate change has led to an increase in extreme precipitation events, especially in economically developed and densely populated cities, resulting in severe urban flooding and transportation disruptions. Analyzing the temporal and spatial evolution patterns and extreme characteristics of precipitation is crucial for enhancing urban flood control capabilities. The temporal and spatial variation characteristics of extreme precipitation events in Shanghai are systematically analyzed based on daily precipitation data from 17 meteorological stations in the city from 1960 to 2021. Nine extreme precipitation indices, including maximum daily precipitation, maximum five-day precipitation, and the number of consecutive wet days, are employed. The Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimation method are utilized to quantify changing trends. The R/S analysis method is applied to calculate the Hurst index to predict future changes in extreme precipitation events, and the standard ellipse method is used to reveal spatial variation patterns. The results indicate that extreme precipitation events in Shanghai have significantly increased on daily, monthly, and yearly scales, and this trend is expected to continue. Spatially, extreme precipitation is primarily concentrated in the central and eastern regions of Shanghai with a gradual shift toward the northeast.