Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis Using BCEA
摘要
Theoretically, as mentioned in Sect. 1.3 , the maximisation of the expected utility is all that is required to determine the best course of action in the face of uncertainty and given current evidence (Baio, Bayesian methods in health economics. Chapman Hall/CRC Press, 2012; Baio and Dawid, Stat Methods Med Res 24, 2011; Claxton, J Health Econ 18:342–364, 1999). This means that if we completely trust all the assumptions made in the current modelling and the data used to inform the unobserved and unobservable quantities, then the computation of ICERs and EIBs would be sufficient to determine which treatment is the most cost-effective. The decision-making process would therefore be completely automated under these circumstances. This implies that, as shown throughout Chap. 3 , the vaccination strategy and the Group Counselling interventions would be implemented immediately for willingness-to-pay values of 25,000 and 250 monetary units, respectively, in the two examples of Chap. 2 .