This study develops a climate-sensitive land suitability framework for Thrissur, a coastal district in Kerala, India, where urban expansion intersects with growing ecological and climate risks. Using a GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), the study evaluates eight spatial parameters—including flood vulnerability, wetland degradation, slope instability, and proximity to services—to classify land for development, conservation, or restoration. Results indicate that 42.3% of land is unsuitable for development, while only 27.7% is moderately or highly suitable. These findings highlight critical trade-offs between development and environmental sustainability. The study proposes nature-based solutions and risk-informed zoning to safeguard fragile ecosystems while enabling guided urban growth. The methodology supports scalable, evidence-based decision-making and can be adapted in other coastal contexts facing similar challenges. By integrating spatial data, ecological thresholds, and climate risk, the framework offers practical tools for sustainable land management and long-term resilience.

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Thrissur’s Coastal Future: A Global Model for Climate-Informed Land Suitability Assessment

  • S. Gayathri,
  • Paulose N. Kuriakose

摘要

This study develops a climate-sensitive land suitability framework for Thrissur, a coastal district in Kerala, India, where urban expansion intersects with growing ecological and climate risks. Using a GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), the study evaluates eight spatial parameters—including flood vulnerability, wetland degradation, slope instability, and proximity to services—to classify land for development, conservation, or restoration. Results indicate that 42.3% of land is unsuitable for development, while only 27.7% is moderately or highly suitable. These findings highlight critical trade-offs between development and environmental sustainability. The study proposes nature-based solutions and risk-informed zoning to safeguard fragile ecosystems while enabling guided urban growth. The methodology supports scalable, evidence-based decision-making and can be adapted in other coastal contexts facing similar challenges. By integrating spatial data, ecological thresholds, and climate risk, the framework offers practical tools for sustainable land management and long-term resilience.