A Case Study of Mysuru Taluk Uses the CA-Markov Model to Monitor and Predict Changes in Land Use and Land Cover
摘要
The Earth’s surface undergoes constant transformation due to natural and human-induced processes, particularly land use and land cover (LULC) changes. These rapid alterations have raised concerns about their ecological impacts, prompting researchers to study them closely. The CA-Markov model, a type of cellular automata (CA) model, is widely used for analyzing and forecasting LULC changes due to its compatibility with remote sensing (RS) and geographic information systems (GIS). These models excel at simulating complex spatial processes with high precision, making them valuable tools for understanding dynamic environmental changes. Mysuru Taluk has experienced notable shifts in LULC due to urbanization, agricultural expansion, and deforestation. These changes affect water resources, biodiversity, and climate resilience. Authorities must analyze these trends using geospatial tools to implement sustainable measures. Strategic planning can help balance development with environmental protection, ensuring long-term ecological and economic stability. Proactive policies are essential to mitigate adverse impacts while supporting growth in the region. This study analyzed LULC changes in Mysuru from 2002 to 2022 using spatial analysis techniques. The CA-Markov model was employed to forecast LULC patterns for 2030 and 2040. Findings revealed a notable increase in built-up and agricultural areas (both aquatic and nonaquatic) over the two decades, while gardens, grasslands, and barren lands declined significantly. Projections indicate this trend will continue, with further urban expansion converting rural landscapes.