The chapter forecasted the dynamics of land cover and use in Nigeria’s Benue State’s Otukpo Local Government Area. In this chapter, changes in the study area were mapped, predicted, and detected using cellular automata, Markov chain models, GIS, and satellite imagery from 1992, 2002, 2012, and 2022. A supervised maximum likelihood classifier was employed for classification. To validate the anticipated land use and land cover maps made for the simulation, a confusion matrix was built. For the identified images, kappa values of 0.74 and 0.84 were achieved, along with overall accuracy values of 74%, 78%, 85%, and 86%. According to change detection data, during the past 30 years, there has been a considerable increase in farming (63.3%) and built-up areas (34.7%), which has resulted in significant losses in vegetation, bare surfaces, and water bodies. According to projected maps for 2032 and 2072, these patterns are expected to persist, with barren surfaces and farmland gradually giving way to vegetation and built-up regions because of reforestation, urbanization, and agricultural development. By 2072, the built environment is expected to have grown by 100%, posing several socioeconomic and environmental problems and emphasizing the necessity of sustainable urban planning and development strategies.

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Land Use and Land Cover Dynamics Prediction in Otukpo LGA, Benue State, Nigeria

  • Christopher Owoicho,
  • Tanko Oga Adamu,
  • Usman Salihu Lay,
  • Andrew Bissala Caleb

摘要

The chapter forecasted the dynamics of land cover and use in Nigeria’s Benue State’s Otukpo Local Government Area. In this chapter, changes in the study area were mapped, predicted, and detected using cellular automata, Markov chain models, GIS, and satellite imagery from 1992, 2002, 2012, and 2022. A supervised maximum likelihood classifier was employed for classification. To validate the anticipated land use and land cover maps made for the simulation, a confusion matrix was built. For the identified images, kappa values of 0.74 and 0.84 were achieved, along with overall accuracy values of 74%, 78%, 85%, and 86%. According to change detection data, during the past 30 years, there has been a considerable increase in farming (63.3%) and built-up areas (34.7%), which has resulted in significant losses in vegetation, bare surfaces, and water bodies. According to projected maps for 2032 and 2072, these patterns are expected to persist, with barren surfaces and farmland gradually giving way to vegetation and built-up regions because of reforestation, urbanization, and agricultural development. By 2072, the built environment is expected to have grown by 100%, posing several socioeconomic and environmental problems and emphasizing the necessity of sustainable urban planning and development strategies.