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The purpose of this study is to assess the current state of supply and demand in the barley market as a niche grain crop and to forecast the effects of changes in the cost of mineral fertilizers on key parameters of its development under likely scenarios. In this study, we used different research methods such as abstract-logical and monographic approaches, comparative analysis, as well as tabular, statistical and economic instruments. We also applied econometric modelling techniques provided by the AGMEMOD partial equilibrium econometric model. We analysed the potential of barley as a niche crop, assessed the current state of the barley market and identified the main factors effecting supply and demand in Ukraine. By examining the dynamics of supply and demand balance, we have highlighted the role of barley in the market as the niche crop. Furthermore, we calculated the forecasted results of changes in mineral fertilizer costs, exploring how these fluctuations may affect the main indicators of barley market development under the potential scenarios. The forecast until 2026 gave us the opportunity to quantify the effects on yields, planted areas, gross harvest and the economic efficiency of barley production. We have presented how fluctuations in mineral fertiliser prices influence yields, production costs and the overall profitability of barley production. Given the nature of the analysis, the results of the study can be used to develop strategic plans and policy measures aimed at maintaining the stability and growth of the agricultural sector in a changing economic environment. In order to support commodity producers, the author suggests ways to improve the mechanisms for reducing or compensating for the cost of purchasing mineral fertilizers. The development of methodological and practical aspects of forecasting the consequences of changes in the cost of mineral fertilizers using the AGMEMOD model allows for a more accurate assessment of the impact of these changes on the barley market. This will provide a basis for making informed management decisions and for the formation and development of state agricultural policy.

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Forecasting and Modeling of the Barley Market as a Nice Cereal Crop in the Conditions of Growing Costs of Mineral Fertilizers

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Anatolii Dibrova,
  • Viktoriia Baidala,
  • Теtiana Mirzoieva,
  • Ludmila Stepasyuk,
  • Alla Chmil,
  • Andrii Sukhostavets

摘要

The purpose of this study is to assess the current state of supply and demand in the barley market as a niche grain crop and to forecast the effects of changes in the cost of mineral fertilizers on key parameters of its development under likely scenarios. In this study, we used different research methods such as abstract-logical and monographic approaches, comparative analysis, as well as tabular, statistical and economic instruments. We also applied econometric modelling techniques provided by the AGMEMOD partial equilibrium econometric model. We analysed the potential of barley as a niche crop, assessed the current state of the barley market and identified the main factors effecting supply and demand in Ukraine. By examining the dynamics of supply and demand balance, we have highlighted the role of barley in the market as the niche crop. Furthermore, we calculated the forecasted results of changes in mineral fertilizer costs, exploring how these fluctuations may affect the main indicators of barley market development under the potential scenarios. The forecast until 2026 gave us the opportunity to quantify the effects on yields, planted areas, gross harvest and the economic efficiency of barley production. We have presented how fluctuations in mineral fertiliser prices influence yields, production costs and the overall profitability of barley production. Given the nature of the analysis, the results of the study can be used to develop strategic plans and policy measures aimed at maintaining the stability and growth of the agricultural sector in a changing economic environment. In order to support commodity producers, the author suggests ways to improve the mechanisms for reducing or compensating for the cost of purchasing mineral fertilizers. The development of methodological and practical aspects of forecasting the consequences of changes in the cost of mineral fertilizers using the AGMEMOD model allows for a more accurate assessment of the impact of these changes on the barley market. This will provide a basis for making informed management decisions and for the formation and development of state agricultural policy.