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We use adaptive network modelling to perform risk analysis for cascade cyber incidents. By randomising characteristics of the incidents and Monte Carlo simulation based on it we explore how we can perform risk analyses. As a use case, we model the 2022 KA-SAT satellite hack and analyse five scenarios from three ENISA recommendations intended to mitigate similar incidents. This method proves well-suited to this type of analysis, especially on cascade scenarios with a tangible chain of effect.

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Cascade Cyber-Incidents and Adaptive Networks: a Computational Monte Carlo Analysis Approach

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Sam van Buuren,
  • Jan Treur,
  • Peter Roelofsma

摘要

We use adaptive network modelling to perform risk analysis for cascade cyber incidents. By randomising characteristics of the incidents and Monte Carlo simulation based on it we explore how we can perform risk analyses. As a use case, we model the 2022 KA-SAT satellite hack and analyse five scenarios from three ENISA recommendations intended to mitigate similar incidents. This method proves well-suited to this type of analysis, especially on cascade scenarios with a tangible chain of effect.