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Rapid demandDemand growth is expected for many metalsMetal used in the energy transition. Many of these metals are byproductsByproduct of other commodities. Byproduct production’s pricePrice response is tied to host mineral economicsMineral economics, complicating its supplySupply dynamics. Moreover, many of these metalsMetal are used in applications where the material properties desired are difficult to substitute; effectively, limiting how quickly demand can adapt to changes in commodity price. Previous work has demonstrated the interconnectivity of jointly produced mineral commodities from the supply side, where the copper–cobalt–nickel system was used and demandDemand was assumed independent across commodities. Studies to understand byproduct-coproductCoproduct market interconnectivity on the demand side are limited, while studies on the interconnectivity of supply and demand simultaneously are even more so. We propose a modification to the multicommodity supply curve method to enable inter-commodity effects on demand simultaneous with supply. In batteriesBatteries, high cobaltCobalt pricesPrice may push consumers to transition to high-nickel chemistries, causing the nickelNickel demand surface to decrease with nickelNickel price but increase with cobaltCobalt pricePrice, creating a two-dimensional demandDemand surface. Below cross-price elasticities of 0.05, inter-commodity effects were found to be negligible, potentially permittingPermitting exclusion of these effects for many commodities. This additional demand curve complexity introduces potential computation challenges alongside the capacity to model many interrelated commodity systems such as rare earth elementsRare Earth Element (REE), ferroalloys, country-oriented subsidies or restrictions, and bifurcated sustainableSustainable metals markets. By presenting the work done on multicommodity supplySupply surfaces to date and potential new directions, this work aims to catalyze the next round of innovative approaches to modeling jointly producedJoint production commodities.

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Modeling Byproduct and Coproduct Mine Production and Mineral Substitution Using Multidimensional Supply Curves: Application to the Cu–Co–Ni System and Beyond

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • John Ryter

摘要

Rapid demandDemand growth is expected for many metalsMetal used in the energy transition. Many of these metals are byproductsByproduct of other commodities. Byproduct production’s pricePrice response is tied to host mineral economicsMineral economics, complicating its supplySupply dynamics. Moreover, many of these metalsMetal are used in applications where the material properties desired are difficult to substitute; effectively, limiting how quickly demand can adapt to changes in commodity price. Previous work has demonstrated the interconnectivity of jointly produced mineral commodities from the supply side, where the copper–cobalt–nickel system was used and demandDemand was assumed independent across commodities. Studies to understand byproduct-coproductCoproduct market interconnectivity on the demand side are limited, while studies on the interconnectivity of supply and demand simultaneously are even more so. We propose a modification to the multicommodity supply curve method to enable inter-commodity effects on demand simultaneous with supply. In batteriesBatteries, high cobaltCobalt pricesPrice may push consumers to transition to high-nickel chemistries, causing the nickelNickel demand surface to decrease with nickelNickel price but increase with cobaltCobalt pricePrice, creating a two-dimensional demandDemand surface. Below cross-price elasticities of 0.05, inter-commodity effects were found to be negligible, potentially permittingPermitting exclusion of these effects for many commodities. This additional demand curve complexity introduces potential computation challenges alongside the capacity to model many interrelated commodity systems such as rare earth elementsRare Earth Element (REE), ferroalloys, country-oriented subsidies or restrictions, and bifurcated sustainableSustainable metals markets. By presenting the work done on multicommodity supplySupply surfaces to date and potential new directions, this work aims to catalyze the next round of innovative approaches to modeling jointly producedJoint production commodities.