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In the paper, we analyzed a trend of significant wave height (Hsig) around the Cuban archipelago since 1940. Hsig monthly data from meteorological buoy 42056, located in southwest of Caribbean Sea, and ERA5 reanalysis are used. On the other hand, different metrics for performance into ERA5 and measurement of Hsig in meteorological buoy 42056 are computed, such as mean error (BIAS), root squared mean error (RSME), Scatter Index (SI), Taylor Skills Score (TSS) and Pearson’s correlation (R). Trends analysis annual series of Hsig are calculated by Mann-Kendall (MK), Sen’s slope and Pettitt test using “trend”, “modifiedmk” and “cmsafops” packages available for R software. Comparison into ERA5 and 42056 buoy suggest a high similitude (-0.004 m, 0.137 m, 0.113, 0.793 and 0.909) form BIAS, RSME, SI, TSS and R respectively. The results of the extreme index of climate change show that the Cuban marine climate from 1991 is becoming more extreme respect to baseline 1961–1990. Besides, Hsig into 1940–2023 making emphasis on the increase around Cuban archipelago a ratio 0.001 m·year−1 by Sen’s slope. Furthermore, MK test indicates global trend and Pettitt shows possible change point around 1996, both statistically significance for 5%.

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Applied Different Trend Method to Detect Change of Significant Wave Height

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Axel Hidalgo Mayo,
  • Ida Mitrani Arenal,
  • Graciela Pérez Rivas

摘要

In the paper, we analyzed a trend of significant wave height (Hsig) around the Cuban archipelago since 1940. Hsig monthly data from meteorological buoy 42056, located in southwest of Caribbean Sea, and ERA5 reanalysis are used. On the other hand, different metrics for performance into ERA5 and measurement of Hsig in meteorological buoy 42056 are computed, such as mean error (BIAS), root squared mean error (RSME), Scatter Index (SI), Taylor Skills Score (TSS) and Pearson’s correlation (R). Trends analysis annual series of Hsig are calculated by Mann-Kendall (MK), Sen’s slope and Pettitt test using “trend”, “modifiedmk” and “cmsafops” packages available for R software. Comparison into ERA5 and 42056 buoy suggest a high similitude (-0.004 m, 0.137 m, 0.113, 0.793 and 0.909) form BIAS, RSME, SI, TSS and R respectively. The results of the extreme index of climate change show that the Cuban marine climate from 1991 is becoming more extreme respect to baseline 1961–1990. Besides, Hsig into 1940–2023 making emphasis on the increase around Cuban archipelago a ratio 0.001 m·year−1 by Sen’s slope. Furthermore, MK test indicates global trend and Pettitt shows possible change point around 1996, both statistically significance for 5%.