Pricing Variable Annuity Guarantees Using Monte Carlo Simulations
摘要
Variable annuities (VAs) are highly popular retirement savings products sold by U.S. life insurance companies. They include complex long-term financial guarantees which offer unique protections for investors while creating interesting challenges for providers. In this chapter, we learn how to price and value these guarantees using Monte Carlo simulations. We begin by exploring how to simulate random stock price movements (based on lognormal distributions). I then provide an introduction to financial options and illustrate how to use these simulated scenarios to price all kinds of options, which ultimately also includes VA guarantees. After a brief introduction to VAs, I show how to value maturity, death, and withdrawal benefit guarantees using simulation. I close the chapter by proposing a series of research questions for the reader to explore.