We apply the Nelson-Siegel-Svensson (NSS) model to historical Moroccan yield curves across different maturities. The model parameters, expressed as a linear combination of four latent factors, capture yield curve dynamics. This approach enables a flexible and efficient modeling of interest rates, facilitating the analysis of market trends and expectations. Based on 70 estimated curves, our results show that interest rate variations align with the Moroccan central bank’s published rate (TMPjj). The analysis highlights the stability of long-term rates, a consistently high slope factor indicating a higher term premium for long-term bonds, and moderate long-term rate movements, suggesting minimal yield curve convexity. To assess the model’s robustness, we conducted a sensitivity analysis using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) methodology. These findings provide the Moroccan central bank with a valuable tool to refine its monetary policy and better anticipate interest rate developments. Furthermore, a deeper understanding of yield curve dynamics contributes to strengthening financial stability and optimizing investment decisions in the Moroccan economy.

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Estimating Moroccan Yield Curve Parameters with the Nelson-Siegel-Svensson Model on Historical Data

  • Hind Bourass,
  • Outmane Soussi Noufail,
  • Hanaa Hachimi,
  • Ithri Fettahi

摘要

We apply the Nelson-Siegel-Svensson (NSS) model to historical Moroccan yield curves across different maturities. The model parameters, expressed as a linear combination of four latent factors, capture yield curve dynamics. This approach enables a flexible and efficient modeling of interest rates, facilitating the analysis of market trends and expectations. Based on 70 estimated curves, our results show that interest rate variations align with the Moroccan central bank’s published rate (TMPjj). The analysis highlights the stability of long-term rates, a consistently high slope factor indicating a higher term premium for long-term bonds, and moderate long-term rate movements, suggesting minimal yield curve convexity. To assess the model’s robustness, we conducted a sensitivity analysis using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) methodology. These findings provide the Moroccan central bank with a valuable tool to refine its monetary policy and better anticipate interest rate developments. Furthermore, a deeper understanding of yield curve dynamics contributes to strengthening financial stability and optimizing investment decisions in the Moroccan economy.