This paper discusses an approach that allows obtaining scientifically substantiated management decisions on the development of organizational systems. A specific example shows the process of developing a fuzzy cognitive model, analyzes the model for stability, and determines a set of activating vertices. The tools for describing and analyzing a fuzzy cognitive model are based on the basic concepts of fuzzy graph theory. The results of simulation modeling devoted to the development of possible scenarios for the development of situations in the socio-economic system of the Rostov Region of the Russian Federation are presented. The results are illustrated with examples of various scenarios, which made it possible to determine many pessimistic and optimistic scenarios and give recommendations to the decision maker.