Enhancing Agile Story Point Estimation: Integrating Fuzzy AHP and Fibonacci Series with Triangular Distribution
摘要
The article explores a novel approach to converting fuzzy membership functions into the Fibonacci series using a triangular distribution within the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) framework. This method is particularly beneficial for agile project management, where story point estimation is crucial. Traditional numerical evaluations are replaced by verbal expressions, which decision-makers use to assess tasks. These verbal expressions are then mapped to Fibonacci numbers, leveraging their simplicity and effectiveness in representing relative sizes. The triangular distribution is employed to model the inherent uncertainty and variability in these evaluations, providing a more nuanced and flexible estimation process. Fuzzy AHP integrates these subjective judgments systematically, ensuring consistency and reliability in translating them into quantifiable story points. This approach enhances the accuracy of sprint planning by accommodating the imprecision and vagueness associated with human assessments. By adopting this method, Agile Information Technology(IT) teams can achieve more reliable and realistic estimations, ultimately improving the efficiency and effectiveness of their sprint planning and execution. This innovative approach not only simplifies the estimation process but also aligns it more closely with the natural way humans evaluate and express uncertainties. It bridges the gap between qualitative assessments and quantitative metrics, making it easier for teams to plan and execute their sprints effectively. The integration of fuzzy logic and Fibonacci series thus represents a significant advancement in Agile project management, offering a robust tool for handling the complexities and uncertainties inherent in software development projects.