Tsunamis can be generated by multiple sources impacting the same area, but if only a single source is considered the hazard may be underestimated and/or biased. This recipe deals simultaneously with different types of tsunamigenic sources in a coherent and multidisciplinary probabilistic framework for the PTHA. A comprehensive methodology takes into account PTHAs for submarine seismic sources, submarine mass failures, and pyroclastic density currents. Eventually a Bayesian procedure merges the prior probabilities with historical data, mainly taken from catalogs, to provide a simultaneous evaluation of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties.

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R12—Multi-Source (Bayesian) PTHA in the Gulf of Naples, Italy

  • Anita Grezio,
  • Jacopo Selva

摘要

Tsunamis can be generated by multiple sources impacting the same area, but if only a single source is considered the hazard may be underestimated and/or biased. This recipe deals simultaneously with different types of tsunamigenic sources in a coherent and multidisciplinary probabilistic framework for the PTHA. A comprehensive methodology takes into account PTHAs for submarine seismic sources, submarine mass failures, and pyroclastic density currents. Eventually a Bayesian procedure merges the prior probabilities with historical data, mainly taken from catalogs, to provide a simultaneous evaluation of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties.