Initiating a new product development (NPD) process is risky for any company or organization. During the production phase, company executives encounter numerous risk factors that must be carefully analyzed, identified, and assessed in advance. Considering this, the present study employs the Z-number-based Interpretive Structural Modeling (Z-ISM) to analyze and structure risk factors in NPD. The core aspect of the ISM method lies in its ability to measure the interrelationships among risk factors, facilitating decision-making and identifying the potential severity of risks. However, predicting risks with acceptable precision remains challenging due to inherent uncertainties in the decision-making process, particularly in NPD. Given this challenge, this study considers the Z-numbers a tool to enhance the ISM approach and the reliability of risk analysis. The Z-ISM method helps manage uncertainty more effectively by incorporating fuzzy and probabilistic approaches, ensuring a more robust and structured risk assessment framework. The findings of this study contribute to improving risk management strategies in NPD, providing a more systematic approach for decision-makers.

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Risk Factor Analysis for New Product Development by Using a Z-Number-Based Interpretive Structural Model

  • Aziz Nuriyev,
  • Gunel Aghajanova

摘要

Initiating a new product development (NPD) process is risky for any company or organization. During the production phase, company executives encounter numerous risk factors that must be carefully analyzed, identified, and assessed in advance. Considering this, the present study employs the Z-number-based Interpretive Structural Modeling (Z-ISM) to analyze and structure risk factors in NPD. The core aspect of the ISM method lies in its ability to measure the interrelationships among risk factors, facilitating decision-making and identifying the potential severity of risks. However, predicting risks with acceptable precision remains challenging due to inherent uncertainties in the decision-making process, particularly in NPD. Given this challenge, this study considers the Z-numbers a tool to enhance the ISM approach and the reliability of risk analysis. The Z-ISM method helps manage uncertainty more effectively by incorporating fuzzy and probabilistic approaches, ensuring a more robust and structured risk assessment framework. The findings of this study contribute to improving risk management strategies in NPD, providing a more systematic approach for decision-makers.