The energy transition is a long-lasting, large-scale process with numerous priorities and goals under complex uncertainties. Transition pathways can be evaluated using either single-period or multi-period approaches, with the latter offering advantages in structuring the transition process and accommodating uncertainties and changes over time. This paper integrates fuzzy energy transition scenarios, fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods, and multi-period solutions into a unified framework. Fuzzy logic tools are utilized for modeling, and fuzzy extensions of MCDM techniques are employed to address the problem. The proposed methodology involves three key steps: (1) formulation of the multi-period, multi-criteria transition task, (2) evaluation of alternatives across different periods and scenarios, and (3) aggregation of evaluations over multiple periods and selection of the best scenario. Changes in priorities and the relative importance of criteria over time are reflected in adjustments to the weights of different criteria for various periods. The approach has been applied to Azerbaijan’s multi-period energy transition task. A comparative analysis of the task was conducted using the fuzzy TOPSIS and PROMETHEE methods to address the problem. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework, which can be extended to other domains involving high levels of uncertainty in multi-period planning and transition tasks.

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A Fuzzy Scenario-Based Multi-Criteria Approach for Solving the Multi-Period Energy Transition Task

  • Mahammad N. Nuriyev,
  • Mahammad A. Nuriyev

摘要

The energy transition is a long-lasting, large-scale process with numerous priorities and goals under complex uncertainties. Transition pathways can be evaluated using either single-period or multi-period approaches, with the latter offering advantages in structuring the transition process and accommodating uncertainties and changes over time. This paper integrates fuzzy energy transition scenarios, fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods, and multi-period solutions into a unified framework. Fuzzy logic tools are utilized for modeling, and fuzzy extensions of MCDM techniques are employed to address the problem. The proposed methodology involves three key steps: (1) formulation of the multi-period, multi-criteria transition task, (2) evaluation of alternatives across different periods and scenarios, and (3) aggregation of evaluations over multiple periods and selection of the best scenario. Changes in priorities and the relative importance of criteria over time are reflected in adjustments to the weights of different criteria for various periods. The approach has been applied to Azerbaijan’s multi-period energy transition task. A comparative analysis of the task was conducted using the fuzzy TOPSIS and PROMETHEE methods to address the problem. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework, which can be extended to other domains involving high levels of uncertainty in multi-period planning and transition tasks.