Developing and Forecasting the Egyptian Construction Cost Index
摘要
The process of formulating conceptual cost estimates in construction projects heavily relies on the utilization of the Construction Cost Index (CCI). The CCI serves as a vital tool for adjusting costs on a monthly and location basis. Within the construction industry, CCIs are derived by computing weighted averages of critical components such as structural steel, Portland cement, lumber, and common labor. It is worth noting that these fundamental elements can vary significantly from one country to another. In the context of Egypt, a unified CCI framework is notably absent, which can present challenges for various stakeholders. In another context, there is a gap when it comes to how the CCI is interrelated with a country’s macroeconomic indicators. This research addresses this gap by (1) developing a localized CCI specific to Egypt, drawing data primarily from the country's predominant construction materials, and (2) building a forecasting model to investigate the influential macroeconomic indicators that could impact the CCI, such as the consumer price index, money supply, and others. As data-driven research, it utilizes statistical modeling and time series analysis—such as vector autoregression, correlation analysis, and Granger causality testing—to achieve the objectives. The research contributes valuable insights into the complex relationships within the construction industry and macroeconomic indicators, enhancing the knowledge base of researchers and professionals alike as it sheds light on the broader economic implications of construction industry dynamics. It is also considered one of a limited number of efforts to provide a formalized CCI for Egypt.