Tourism service exports play an important role in the economic growth and sustainable development of many countries. This study aims to forecast Uzbekistan’s tourism services exports and identify the main economic factors affecting them. The analysis was conducted using log-log and semi-log regression models based on official statistical data for 2010–2023. The results show that the number of inbound tourist and hotel beds is the main driver of services exports, and their growth has a significant positive impact. Passenger transport, trade and accommodation services also have a positive impact on the growth of tourism exports. The forecast was made based on the semi-logarithmic model (R2 = 0.785), which has the highest accuracy among the models studied, and it was determined that Uzbekistan’s tourism services exports could reach 2.85 billion USD by 2028. The results of the study confirm that the development of tourism infrastructure and increasing the flow of foreign tourists are important factors for sustainable development. These results serve as a scientific basis for the formulation of Uzbekistan’s tourism policy, investment decisions and long-term strategic planning.