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Since the beginning of the 21st century, armed conflicts have caused unprecedented environmental degradation, particularly in Africa, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe (Ukraine). The main consequences include deforestation, biodiversity loss, water pollution, and \(CO_2\) emissions, pushing ecosystems toward critical thresholds. The article calculates the Environmental Degradation Index (EDI \(=\) 9.48), the Ecological Footprint (EF \(=\) 8,695,000 ha), and the Ecosystem Resilience Index (ERI \(=\) 0.09), highlighting escalating military and environmental crises worldwide, with projections extending to 2050: resource depletion, mass migrations, and ecosystem collapse. These trends correlate with the hypothesis “The Conflict of the 21st Century” formulated in the article, which is unfortunately supported by real-world data from 2000–2023 provided by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) and the Conflict Barometer from the Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research (HIIK). Immediate global actions, including international cooperation to prevent and mitigate armed conflicts and ecosystem restoration, are critical to avoiding irreversible consequences for humanity.

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The Impact of Armed Conflicts on Planetary Environmental Security

  • 章节

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Michael Zgurovsky

摘要

Since the beginning of the 21st century, armed conflicts have caused unprecedented environmental degradation, particularly in Africa, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe (Ukraine). The main consequences include deforestation, biodiversity loss, water pollution, and \(CO_2\) emissions, pushing ecosystems toward critical thresholds. The article calculates the Environmental Degradation Index (EDI \(=\) 9.48), the Ecological Footprint (EF \(=\) 8,695,000 ha), and the Ecosystem Resilience Index (ERI \(=\) 0.09), highlighting escalating military and environmental crises worldwide, with projections extending to 2050: resource depletion, mass migrations, and ecosystem collapse. These trends correlate with the hypothesis “The Conflict of the 21st Century” formulated in the article, which is unfortunately supported by real-world data from 2000–2023 provided by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) and the Conflict Barometer from the Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research (HIIK). Immediate global actions, including international cooperation to prevent and mitigate armed conflicts and ecosystem restoration, are critical to avoiding irreversible consequences for humanity.