When making decisions, it is important to take into account high-impact low-probability events. For such events, traditional probability-based approach – which considers the product of the probability p that this event happens and the probability P that a randomly selected building will be destroyed – often underestimates risks. Available data has lead to an empirical table that provides a more adequate risk estimate. Most of the entries in this table correspond to the fuzzy-like formula \(\min (p,P)\) . This paper explains this empirical result. Specifically, it explains both the effectiveness of the min formula – and also explains deviations from this formula.