With the significant growth of the cryptocurrency market, predicting its short-term movements has become a significant challenge, requiring methodologies that combine both on-chain data and traditional financial indicators to improve prediction accuracy. This work proposes an integrated approach to predicting short-term movements in the cryptocurrency market by combining on-chain data with traditional financial indicators within the framework of the Rainbow Bitcoin Chart. The methodology encompasses data preparation, model development, and performance evaluation, aiming to build a robust and accurate tool for classifying market trends. By integrating blockchain structural analysis with financial signals, this approach seeks to enhance forecast accuracy and support more informed decision-making. The results show that the normalized model with 14-day windows achieved the best performance among the tested configurations, reaching an accuracy of over 75%.

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Analysis of Bitcoin Trends Through the Integration of On-Chain Financial Indicators and Machine Learning

  • Arthur G. Bubolz,
  • Giancarlo Lucca,
  • Lizandro de S. Oliveira,
  • Thiago Teixeira,
  • Rafael A. Berri,
  • Eduardo N. Borges,
  • Bruno L. Dalmazo

摘要

With the significant growth of the cryptocurrency market, predicting its short-term movements has become a significant challenge, requiring methodologies that combine both on-chain data and traditional financial indicators to improve prediction accuracy. This work proposes an integrated approach to predicting short-term movements in the cryptocurrency market by combining on-chain data with traditional financial indicators within the framework of the Rainbow Bitcoin Chart. The methodology encompasses data preparation, model development, and performance evaluation, aiming to build a robust and accurate tool for classifying market trends. By integrating blockchain structural analysis with financial signals, this approach seeks to enhance forecast accuracy and support more informed decision-making. The results show that the normalized model with 14-day windows achieved the best performance among the tested configurations, reaching an accuracy of over 75%.