Today’s world is grappling with interconnected challenges, such as energy shortages and climate change. Fossil fuels, like coal, oil, and natural gas, remain the dominant global energy sources but are also major contributors to greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. Additionally, these energy sources are increasingly fueling geopolitical instability. In response to energy insecurity and climate change, nations are turning to renewable energy sources like hydroelectric, solar, wind, and geothermal energy. Hydropower generates more electricity than all other renewable technologies combined and is projected to remain the largest source of renewable electricity generation through the 2030 s. This paper aims to analyze the role of hydroelectric data in countries’ energy transitions through the lens of innovation diffusion models. By applying innovation diffusion models, we aim to explore the dynamics of hydroelectric energy across different nations and assess whether and to what extent this energy source has played a significant role in their energy transitions. We have modeled hydroelectric energy generation time series to achieve this using the Bass Model. Based on the model parameters, our analysis seeks to identify patterns and commonalities across the countries studied.

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Explaining Hydropower Generation Through Innovation Diffusion Modeling

  • Farooq Ahmad,
  • Mariangela Guidolin

摘要

Today’s world is grappling with interconnected challenges, such as energy shortages and climate change. Fossil fuels, like coal, oil, and natural gas, remain the dominant global energy sources but are also major contributors to greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. Additionally, these energy sources are increasingly fueling geopolitical instability. In response to energy insecurity and climate change, nations are turning to renewable energy sources like hydroelectric, solar, wind, and geothermal energy. Hydropower generates more electricity than all other renewable technologies combined and is projected to remain the largest source of renewable electricity generation through the 2030 s. This paper aims to analyze the role of hydroelectric data in countries’ energy transitions through the lens of innovation diffusion models. By applying innovation diffusion models, we aim to explore the dynamics of hydroelectric energy across different nations and assess whether and to what extent this energy source has played a significant role in their energy transitions. We have modeled hydroelectric energy generation time series to achieve this using the Bass Model. Based on the model parameters, our analysis seeks to identify patterns and commonalities across the countries studied.