Russian Pivot to the South: Moscow’s Strategic Interests in the Arab Gulf Amid War in Ukraine and the BRICS Expansion
摘要
As the international system grows increasingly multipolar, with no clear hegemon—despite the United States’ longstanding dominance or perception thereof—alliances have become more fluid and flexible, with states primarily seeking to avoid isolation. Within this shifting global order, Russia—long intent on reclaiming its status as a global power following the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991—has found significant opportunities to diversify partnerships and expand its influence. This was already evident in its leading role in establishing and advancing the BRICS agenda. This chapter argues that, paradoxically, these opportunities have only grown in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Despite mounting Western sanctions, Moscow has deepened its ties with Gulf states, particularly in trade, investment, energy markets, and multilateral forums, where it has actively supported their inclusion in the BRICS. What has driven Russia’s engagement, and how has this activism been perceived in the Arab Gulf region? Drawing on official documents and interviews with Russian and Arab policymakers, this chapter analyzes Russia’s motivations behind its post-Ukraine Gulf policy, as well as Arab perceptions, which seem to position Russia not as a dominant power but as a pragmatic partner in their broader strategy of hedging between great powers.