As AI creates a strong technological push on our societies and defense systems, increasing requirements to counteract hybrid warfare pull the demands for new methods to think defense in a systemic and interconnected way. The holistic bowtie model offers a method for understanding the connections between our defense systems and surrounding organizations and societies on an interconnected planet. It is derived from the class of bowtie models already in use for decades in hazard and accident analysis and is inspired by and a potential answer to the Chinese principle of 天下 Tianxia. The holistic bowtie model focuses on critical situations and is gradually expanded to include other system levels, their causal influences, and control loops. The article starts with the historical example of the spears of Schoeningen, introduces the concept step by step, puts it into the military context of modern (cognitive) warfare, discusses the role of cognition, emotions, truth, sensemaking, trust and mistrust, and finally agility as essential building blocks in a strong alliance.

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Holistic Bowtie Model of AI-Based Technology in Defense Systems

  • Frank Ole Flemisch,
  • Dierk Spreen,
  • Marie-Pierre Pacaux-Lemoine,
  • Benjamin J. Knox,
  • Kairi Talves,
  • John Christopher Brill

摘要

As AI creates a strong technological push on our societies and defense systems, increasing requirements to counteract hybrid warfare pull the demands for new methods to think defense in a systemic and interconnected way. The holistic bowtie model offers a method for understanding the connections between our defense systems and surrounding organizations and societies on an interconnected planet. It is derived from the class of bowtie models already in use for decades in hazard and accident analysis and is inspired by and a potential answer to the Chinese principle of 天下 Tianxia. The holistic bowtie model focuses on critical situations and is gradually expanded to include other system levels, their causal influences, and control loops. The article starts with the historical example of the spears of Schoeningen, introduces the concept step by step, puts it into the military context of modern (cognitive) warfare, discusses the role of cognition, emotions, truth, sensemaking, trust and mistrust, and finally agility as essential building blocks in a strong alliance.