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In this paper, we investigate the statistical properties of Bitcoin and the CRIX index using two layers of analysis: Metcalfe’s law and bubble behaviour through LPPL modelling. The results show that, in the medium to long run, Metcalfe’s law (which states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users) is valid for evaluating cryptocurrencies. However, in the short run, the validity of Metcalfe’s law for Bitcoin is questionable. The DS LPPLS methodology was used to capture the behaviour of Bitcoin exchange rates during an endogenous bubble and to predict the most probable time of regime switching. The main conclusion of this paper is that while Metcalfe’s law may be valid in the long run, its validity in the short run, across various data regimes, is highly debatable.

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Cryptocurrency Market Analysis: Insights from Metcalfe’s Law and Log-Periodic Power Laws

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Alexandra Ioana Conda,
  • Andrei-Theodor Ginavar,
  • Daniel Traian Pele,
  • Miruna Mazurencu-Marinescu-Pele

摘要

In this paper, we investigate the statistical properties of Bitcoin and the CRIX index using two layers of analysis: Metcalfe’s law and bubble behaviour through LPPL modelling. The results show that, in the medium to long run, Metcalfe’s law (which states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users) is valid for evaluating cryptocurrencies. However, in the short run, the validity of Metcalfe’s law for Bitcoin is questionable. The DS LPPLS methodology was used to capture the behaviour of Bitcoin exchange rates during an endogenous bubble and to predict the most probable time of regime switching. The main conclusion of this paper is that while Metcalfe’s law may be valid in the long run, its validity in the short run, across various data regimes, is highly debatable.