The primary objective of this study is to investigate the influence of external public debt on the real exchange rate by assessing the effects of several factors: external public debt, external debt service, foreign reserves, budget deficit, and trade deficit, over the period from 1990 to 2023. A descriptive and analytical methodology was employed, utilizing the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) technique. Findings indicated a positive relationship between external public debt, foreign reserves, and budget deficit with the real exchange rate at a significance level of 5%. In light of the positive impact of borrowing on the exchange rate, which subsequently diminishes the competitiveness of domestic goods in international markets and exacerbates the trade deficit, the study recommends a reduction in external borrowing and the exploration of alternative financing sources. Furthermore, it advocates for directing borrowing towards productive ventures, rather than utilizing funds to support the national budget or cover current expenditures, and emphasizes the necessity of limiting government loans that come with challenging terms.

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The Effect of External Public Debt on the Real Exchange Rate

  • Ibrahim Mohammed Alsahiem,
  • Maher Mohammed Al-Nuaim,
  • Mohammed Matroud Al-Smiran,
  • Khalid Al-Sawaie,
  • Mohammed Adnan Al-Hbarineh

摘要

The primary objective of this study is to investigate the influence of external public debt on the real exchange rate by assessing the effects of several factors: external public debt, external debt service, foreign reserves, budget deficit, and trade deficit, over the period from 1990 to 2023. A descriptive and analytical methodology was employed, utilizing the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) technique. Findings indicated a positive relationship between external public debt, foreign reserves, and budget deficit with the real exchange rate at a significance level of 5%. In light of the positive impact of borrowing on the exchange rate, which subsequently diminishes the competitiveness of domestic goods in international markets and exacerbates the trade deficit, the study recommends a reduction in external borrowing and the exploration of alternative financing sources. Furthermore, it advocates for directing borrowing towards productive ventures, rather than utilizing funds to support the national budget or cover current expenditures, and emphasizes the necessity of limiting government loans that come with challenging terms.