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In this chapter, we examine the temporal dynamics of the novel coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) in Bangladesh and the rest of the world using the machine-learning method for determining the impact of this disease in Bangladesh government health policy intervention. We employed the Prophet forecasting procedure for short-term forecasts of the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19-related deaths and recovery cases reported globally. We collected daily data of cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases, deaths, and recovery cases in Bangladesh from the Institute of Epidemiology Disease Control and Research of Bangladesh (IEDCR) and globally from the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center. We provided the 10, 25, and 50 days forecast with quantified uncertainty based on the generalized Prophet forecasting model with 95% prediction interval. Our 10-, 25-, and 50-day forecasts estimated the cumulative numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases, deaths, and recovery cases to reach 3.2–3.4 million, 4.1–4.7 million, and 6.2–6.7 million; 0.22–0.24 million, 0.35–0.37 million, and 0.50–0.57 million; and 0.84–0.90 million, 1.2–1.4 million, and ~ 2 million worldwide, respectively. The results suggested that, if not controlled immediately, the impact of this outbreak could worsen considerably. Rapid reduction in the infection rate could lead to a substantial decrease in the outbreak peak and mortality rate. In the absence of an adequate vaccine, the participation and preventive measures by the general population are crucial.

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Forecasting Early COVID-19 and Challenges of Government Health-Care Policy Practice

  • 章节

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Mohammad Mazibar Rahman,
  • Nishat Anan,
  • Mst Parvin Akter

摘要

In this chapter, we examine the temporal dynamics of the novel coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) in Bangladesh and the rest of the world using the machine-learning method for determining the impact of this disease in Bangladesh government health policy intervention. We employed the Prophet forecasting procedure for short-term forecasts of the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19-related deaths and recovery cases reported globally. We collected daily data of cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases, deaths, and recovery cases in Bangladesh from the Institute of Epidemiology Disease Control and Research of Bangladesh (IEDCR) and globally from the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center. We provided the 10, 25, and 50 days forecast with quantified uncertainty based on the generalized Prophet forecasting model with 95% prediction interval. Our 10-, 25-, and 50-day forecasts estimated the cumulative numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases, deaths, and recovery cases to reach 3.2–3.4 million, 4.1–4.7 million, and 6.2–6.7 million; 0.22–0.24 million, 0.35–0.37 million, and 0.50–0.57 million; and 0.84–0.90 million, 1.2–1.4 million, and ~ 2 million worldwide, respectively. The results suggested that, if not controlled immediately, the impact of this outbreak could worsen considerably. Rapid reduction in the infection rate could lead to a substantial decrease in the outbreak peak and mortality rate. In the absence of an adequate vaccine, the participation and preventive measures by the general population are crucial.