The Kashmir Basin, located in India's seismically active Zone V, lies within a complex fault system, making it highly susceptible to earthquakes. Despite historical seismicity in Sidmatnagar, Kondabal, Nilnag, Baramulla, and Dodherhama, the region has not experienced a major earthquake in recent centuries, except for the 2005 Muzaffarabad earthquake (Mw 7.6), which had its epicenter outside the Kashmir Valley near Balakot. This prolonged aseismic period suggests significant stress accumulation, increasing the likelihood of a future large-magnitude event. To assess relative tectonic activity and seismic hazard potential, we conducted a quantitative analysis using geomorphic indices. The region was subdivided into 22 sub-basins, of which nine (five in the southern sector and four in the northern sector) were analyzed using K-means clustering of eight morphometric indices: hypsometric integral, asymmetry factor, mountain front sinuosity, basin shape, form factor, bifurcation ratio, and sinuosity index. These indices serve as proxies for active tectonics, allowing a systematic evaluation of landscape deformation and fault activity. The clustering approach facilitated the identification of spatial patterns in tectonic activity, offering insights into the structural controls shaping the region. The results categorize the region into three tectonic activity classes: low (Class 1), moderate (Class 2), and high (Class 3). The highest relative tectonic activity is concentrated along the Panjal Thrust and Balapur Fault, forming a structurally controlled 100 km corridor from Shopian to Baramulla. In contrast, the Zanskar Thrust exhibits the lowest activity in the northern and northeastern segments. Regions classified as high-active zones display higher geomorphic deformation, characterized by straight mountain fronts, asymmetric drainage and elongated basin shapes. Seismic frequency-magnitude analysis suggests a higher probability of moderate-magnitude earthquakes in northern regions. This spatial variation in tectonic activity, with attenuations from south to north, emphasizing the urgent need for updated seismic hazard assessments, geodetic monitoring, and risk mitigation strategies in the Kashmir Valley.

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Quantitative Assessment of Relative Tectonic Activity and Its Implications for Seismic Hazard Analysis in the Pir Panjal and Zanskar Mountain Ranges, Northwest Himalaya

  • Ahsan Afzal Wani,
  • Bikram Singh Bali,
  • Mohammad Irfan,
  • Naseer Ahmad Bhat

摘要

The Kashmir Basin, located in India's seismically active Zone V, lies within a complex fault system, making it highly susceptible to earthquakes. Despite historical seismicity in Sidmatnagar, Kondabal, Nilnag, Baramulla, and Dodherhama, the region has not experienced a major earthquake in recent centuries, except for the 2005 Muzaffarabad earthquake (Mw 7.6), which had its epicenter outside the Kashmir Valley near Balakot. This prolonged aseismic period suggests significant stress accumulation, increasing the likelihood of a future large-magnitude event. To assess relative tectonic activity and seismic hazard potential, we conducted a quantitative analysis using geomorphic indices. The region was subdivided into 22 sub-basins, of which nine (five in the southern sector and four in the northern sector) were analyzed using K-means clustering of eight morphometric indices: hypsometric integral, asymmetry factor, mountain front sinuosity, basin shape, form factor, bifurcation ratio, and sinuosity index. These indices serve as proxies for active tectonics, allowing a systematic evaluation of landscape deformation and fault activity. The clustering approach facilitated the identification of spatial patterns in tectonic activity, offering insights into the structural controls shaping the region. The results categorize the region into three tectonic activity classes: low (Class 1), moderate (Class 2), and high (Class 3). The highest relative tectonic activity is concentrated along the Panjal Thrust and Balapur Fault, forming a structurally controlled 100 km corridor from Shopian to Baramulla. In contrast, the Zanskar Thrust exhibits the lowest activity in the northern and northeastern segments. Regions classified as high-active zones display higher geomorphic deformation, characterized by straight mountain fronts, asymmetric drainage and elongated basin shapes. Seismic frequency-magnitude analysis suggests a higher probability of moderate-magnitude earthquakes in northern regions. This spatial variation in tectonic activity, with attenuations from south to north, emphasizing the urgent need for updated seismic hazard assessments, geodetic monitoring, and risk mitigation strategies in the Kashmir Valley.