Predictive Model for Development of Transport and Logistics System and Supply Chains in Ukraine in Context of European Integration Processes
摘要
The paper is devoted to the actual problems of the transport and logistics system and supply chains in modern conditions, aimed at achieving the development of transport and logistics systems based on the analysis of financial and economic indicators of transport services and cargo volumes. The formation of transport and logistics systems should meet the main priorities of market demand and take into account the patterns of development of needs for the quality of key characteristics of transport services: safety, speed, service and payment technologies, insurance. The results of the activities of transport enterprises and the analysis of cargo transportation volumes allowed to conclude that there are positive recovery trends in the face of growing demand for transportation services. The ways to increase the efficiency of the transport complex, ensure coordination and interaction in the activities of various modes of transport, develop intermodal transportation of goods through international transport corridors (ITC) are investigated. In order to ensure the realization of Ukraine's transit potential in the global ITC system, it is necessary to apply fundamentally new approaches based on the principles of logistics management, priority development of transport for the formation of integrated transport systems at the regional, interregional and international levels. The paper proposes predictive model for determining the volume of monthly cargo transportation and the dynamics of cargo turnover, which takes into account the analysis of the geometric structure of the data. This model can be used to solve the problems of short-term cargo forecasting in the future.