Modeling Human Behavior in Cybersecurity: Leveraging Structural Equation Modeling to Address Cognitive Biases and Enhance Defense Strategies
摘要
The field of cybersecurity has evolved significantly over the past few decades, with the rise of complex attacks and critical breaches underscoring the need for more advanced defense mechanisms. Traditional cybersecurity strategies have focused on technological defenses such as intrusion detection systems, firewalls, and anti-virus software. However, these methods are increasingly complemented by approaches that consider oppositional human factors, such as cognitive vulnerabilities and decision-making biases of cyber attackers. This chapter introduces the concept of leveraging Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to better understand these cognitive biases and their impact on attacker behavior, thereby enabling the design of more effective cyber deception strategies. SEM is a powerful statistical tool that facilitates the modeling of both direct and indirect effects across multiple variables, offering a way to predict how attackers respond to different scenarios within a network. By applying SEM to cybersecurity, researchers can hypothesize how cognitive vulnerabilities, such as representativeness bias and loss aversion, affect decision-making processes, and how these biases can be exploited through deception techniques like honeypots and decoy systems. The chapter explores two hypothesized implementations of SEM to illustrate how cognitive modeling techniques can be applied in real-world cyber environments, where factors such as the presence of atypical network assets can trigger irrational behavior in attackers. The chapter also outlines key experimental methods, such as manipulating network environments, to create scenarios that test the cognitive limitations of attackers. These experiments allow for the identification of biases and the measurement of their impact on the success and speed of attacks, providing critical insights that inform the design of more adaptive and resilient cyber defenses. Overall, this chapter argues that the application of SEM in cybersecurity is not only feasible but essential for developing innovative, human-centered defense strategies that stay ahead of sophisticated cyber threats.