In recent years, subscription-based video streaming services have rapidly expanded, with the market growing significantly in Japan, particularly since 2018. This study aims to identify the key factors that contribute to customer loyalty in subscription-based video streaming services. Specifically, it examines the impact of customer expectations and satisfaction on loyalty and analyzes their relationship with recommendation intentions. This study utilizes data from the 2018 Oricon Customer Satisfaction Survey and employs multiple regression analysis and decision tree analysis. The results reveal that the most critical factors for enhancing loyalty are “the number of videos and richness of content,” “company reliability,” and “ease of use of the playback screen.” Among these factors, “the number of videos and richness of content,” “ease of use of the playback screen,” and “company reliability” exert the strongest influence on loyalty in video streaming services. Additionally, “the balance between price and the number of videos and content” and “ease of use of the playback screen and video quality” function as secondary factors in improving loyalty, once core elements such as content quality, reliability, and promotional appeal are met. From another perspective, the study suggests that the relationship between customer expectations and satisfaction also affects loyalty formation. In particular, it was observed that customers who initially had no expectations for the service were less likely to develop strong loyalty.