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The education system in African cities and particularly in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso is characterized by unequal distribution. This results in long distances for students to travel to their schools. This is observed as a mismatch between educational supply and demand. This phenomenon is even more pronounced with the continued increase in population and other uses of urban space in African cities. The paper examines the impact of urbanization and demographics on school infrastructure demand and supply, predicting future developments. It compares complex systems and proposes a generic model called the Education Simulation Model (EduSim) to simulate urban and demographic trends. Modeling by allowing the abstraction and integration of different types of data collected from different sources and its ability to predict the behavior of the actors in the complex system is relevant to analyze the impact of demography on the development of school infrastructure. For this study, we first showed to what extent the education system is a complex system. To do this, we compared the characteristics of complex systems and the education system. Then, we presented the different approaches to modeling the education system. Of these approaches, the most relevant and suitable for our study is agent-based modeling. It allows the study of the behavior of actors in order to analyze the results of their actions on the educational, urban and demographic systems as well as their interactions. The model assesses student enrollment and tracks school inequalities. Results show that urban growth, population growth, and distance constraints affect school infrastructure demand and enrollment. The model proposes new schools based on population needs and criteria. The resulting model from the analysis is a decision-making tool in predicting urban and demographic growth and also in planning school provision in African cities. In perspective, the model expects to couple information models as well as migration models and propose more research criteria for decision-makers.

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EduSim: A Multi-agent Model for Simulating the Impacts of Urban and Demographic Growth on School Infrastructures Demand and Offer in the City of Ouagadougou

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Yacouba Ouedraogo,
  • Mahamadou Belem,
  • Dramane Coulibaly,
  • Mehdi Saqalli,
  • Mesmin Dandjinou,
  • Marie Yves Théodore Tapsoba

摘要

The education system in African cities and particularly in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso is characterized by unequal distribution. This results in long distances for students to travel to their schools. This is observed as a mismatch between educational supply and demand. This phenomenon is even more pronounced with the continued increase in population and other uses of urban space in African cities. The paper examines the impact of urbanization and demographics on school infrastructure demand and supply, predicting future developments. It compares complex systems and proposes a generic model called the Education Simulation Model (EduSim) to simulate urban and demographic trends. Modeling by allowing the abstraction and integration of different types of data collected from different sources and its ability to predict the behavior of the actors in the complex system is relevant to analyze the impact of demography on the development of school infrastructure. For this study, we first showed to what extent the education system is a complex system. To do this, we compared the characteristics of complex systems and the education system. Then, we presented the different approaches to modeling the education system. Of these approaches, the most relevant and suitable for our study is agent-based modeling. It allows the study of the behavior of actors in order to analyze the results of their actions on the educational, urban and demographic systems as well as their interactions. The model assesses student enrollment and tracks school inequalities. Results show that urban growth, population growth, and distance constraints affect school infrastructure demand and enrollment. The model proposes new schools based on population needs and criteria. The resulting model from the analysis is a decision-making tool in predicting urban and demographic growth and also in planning school provision in African cities. In perspective, the model expects to couple information models as well as migration models and propose more research criteria for decision-makers.