Ground Motion Hazard
摘要
This chapter starts with the general description of transient strains and stresses and the dynamic stress concentration factors for a plane harmonic incident P- and S-wave hitting a tunnel. Then it gives a rudimentary explanation of the ground motion (GM) at seismic source, describes parameters that measure the intensity of GM, and presents a case study on amplification of GM at the skin of an excavation. Understanding, quantifying, and forecasting GM motion in the near and intermediate field of seismic radiation is the most important issue in mine induced seismicity since most damage caused by seismic events is observed in excavations very close to their sources. Since the maximum ground velocity at source is controlled by the strength of the rock mass, small and large events produce similar ground velocity at source, but large events affect a substantial volume of rock, and hence, the probability of hitting a vulnerable structure is considerably higher. In smaller mines, the strong ground velocities and displacements associated with larger events may affect the entire infrastructure. The next section is dedicated to the ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) and its applications, e.g. plotting the expected GM at strategic locations in real time, seismic fragility curves that show the probability that tunnel support may be damaged under different seismic loads given its remaining deformation capacity, and the GM alert program, called GMAP. The next section describes the real-time version of GMAP, called GMAS, that does not require the GMPE and estimated source parameters to issue an alert. The next section describes mapping seismic ground motion hazard, which in earthquake seismology is called the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and its limitations, the major being the uncertainty in the spatial distribution of the expected seismicity. The last section, modelling seismic hazard, describes what is called the deterministic hazard, i.e. kinematic modelling of GM produced by potential seismic sources defined by their expected maximum potency or energy, placed at the most likely locations that can produce the highest intensity of GM motion at a given site. Examples of modelling GM produced by extended and complex sources are given.