Background. The existence of previous studies on the effects of various meteorological factors related to malaria is limited in Mali. This study tries to address this gap, by investigating the effects of ambient temperature and its effect modifiers on malaria in Bamako. Specifically, it sought to analyse temporal trends in weather conditions in connection with malaria cases, to identify patterns, seasonality, and potential long-term trends, and to correlate specific weather events that may increase incidences of malaria. Methods. Daily data on malaria cases and meteorological factors from 2012 to 2022 were collected. Then, we quantified relationships between meteorological variables and malaria case outcomes. The association between meteorological factors and malaria was explored using Regression models, the Pearson Chi-Square Test, and the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) with Poisson Distribution. Results. The findings suggest that malaria increases with rising levels of rainfall and humidity, but usually decreases with increasing temperature. These insights underscore the importance of considering climatic factors—particularly temperature, humidity, and rainfall—in malaria prevention and control efforts in Bamako, Mali. Public health professionals and medical service providers should pay more attention to malaria prevention and control when the weather conditions of both high temperature and high humidity occur.

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Effects of Ambient Temperature and Its Effect Modifiers on Malaria in Bamako, Mali

  • Adama Boua Doumbia,
  • Konin Pierre-Claver Kakou,
  • Walter Leal Filho,
  • Hamadoun Sangho,
  • Amoro Coulibaly

摘要

Background. The existence of previous studies on the effects of various meteorological factors related to malaria is limited in Mali. This study tries to address this gap, by investigating the effects of ambient temperature and its effect modifiers on malaria in Bamako. Specifically, it sought to analyse temporal trends in weather conditions in connection with malaria cases, to identify patterns, seasonality, and potential long-term trends, and to correlate specific weather events that may increase incidences of malaria. Methods. Daily data on malaria cases and meteorological factors from 2012 to 2022 were collected. Then, we quantified relationships between meteorological variables and malaria case outcomes. The association between meteorological factors and malaria was explored using Regression models, the Pearson Chi-Square Test, and the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) with Poisson Distribution. Results. The findings suggest that malaria increases with rising levels of rainfall and humidity, but usually decreases with increasing temperature. These insights underscore the importance of considering climatic factors—particularly temperature, humidity, and rainfall—in malaria prevention and control efforts in Bamako, Mali. Public health professionals and medical service providers should pay more attention to malaria prevention and control when the weather conditions of both high temperature and high humidity occur.