14 types of seismic, geophysical and geochemical precursors before seven shallow- and intermediate-focus 2013–2021 earthquakes with MW = 6.6–7.7 in the area of the Kamchatka Peninsula in NW of the Pacific seismic belt are considered. Data analysis carried out taking into account the composition and durations of the precursors before each of the earthquakes showed an increase in precursors number N with increasing earthquake parameter MW/log10 (dh), here dh is the hypocentral distance to the center of the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky test site (PKTS), where located “non-seismological” observations. The relationship between number of precursors N and the MW/log10 (dh) parameter at values of the Pearson correlation coefficient r = 0.96 and the Spearman rank correlation coefficient ρ = 0.97 was established for six interplate subduction earthquakes that occurred in the Kuril-Kamchatka island arc and the region of its junction with the Aleutian island arc. The manifestation of precursors was very weak before the intraplate earthquake located in the Pacific oceanic plate. Taking into account the configuration of the observation network, the increase in the number of precursors N with an increase in the MW/log10 (dh) parameter reflects the property of the integrated manifestation of precursors before interplate subduction earthquakes that are the strongest and closest to the PKTS territory. It is proposed to create an electronic database of regular forecast reports on individual methods for searching for precursors from the archives of expert councils on earthquake forecasting operating in the Kamchatka Krai of Russia in order to study the integrated manifestation of precursors.

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Precursors of Strong Earthquakes in Kamchatka (According to Data from 2005–2022)

  • Galina Kopylova,
  • Yulia Serafimova,
  • Victoria Kasimova

摘要

14 types of seismic, geophysical and geochemical precursors before seven shallow- and intermediate-focus 2013–2021 earthquakes with MW = 6.6–7.7 in the area of the Kamchatka Peninsula in NW of the Pacific seismic belt are considered. Data analysis carried out taking into account the composition and durations of the precursors before each of the earthquakes showed an increase in precursors number N with increasing earthquake parameter MW/log10 (dh), here dh is the hypocentral distance to the center of the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky test site (PKTS), where located “non-seismological” observations. The relationship between number of precursors N and the MW/log10 (dh) parameter at values of the Pearson correlation coefficient r = 0.96 and the Spearman rank correlation coefficient ρ = 0.97 was established for six interplate subduction earthquakes that occurred in the Kuril-Kamchatka island arc and the region of its junction with the Aleutian island arc. The manifestation of precursors was very weak before the intraplate earthquake located in the Pacific oceanic plate. Taking into account the configuration of the observation network, the increase in the number of precursors N with an increase in the MW/log10 (dh) parameter reflects the property of the integrated manifestation of precursors before interplate subduction earthquakes that are the strongest and closest to the PKTS territory. It is proposed to create an electronic database of regular forecast reports on individual methods for searching for precursors from the archives of expert councils on earthquake forecasting operating in the Kamchatka Krai of Russia in order to study the integrated manifestation of precursors.