In this work we continue studying long-term variability of the main directions of extratropical cyclone movement (storm tracks) in the North Atlantic and its possible relation to solar activity. The variations of storm track latitudes in three regions of the North Atlantic were compared: (1) the western North Atlantic (60–40°W), which is a region of intensive formation and development of extratropical cyclones; (2) the Icelandic Low region (30–10°W), where cyclones usually reach the stage of the maximal development and their occurrence is the highest; (3) the North Atlantic region to the east of the Greenwich meridian (0–20°E), where cyclone filling processes intensify. It was found that secular variations (~80–100 years) in storm track latitudes, which may be connected with the solar Gleissberg cycle, strongly dominate in the western North Atlantic, weaken in the Icelandic Low region and disappear east of Greenwich. The oscillations of storm track latitudes, with periods close to the Sun’s magnetic Hale cycle, are a characteristic feature for all the studied regions. Storm tracks were found to shift noticeably to the north in even (according to the Zurich numbering) solar cycles and slightly to the south in odd ones. This effect is most pronounced in the Icelandic Low region and weakens sharply east of Greenwich. A possible mechanism of the detected effects seems to include variations in intensity of the stratospheric polar vortex influencing the position of the polar jet, and then the direction of cyclone movement.

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Long-Term Effects of Solar Activity on Extratropical Cyclone Movement in Different Regions of the North Atlantic

  • Svetlana Veretenenko,
  • Pavel Dmitriev

摘要

In this work we continue studying long-term variability of the main directions of extratropical cyclone movement (storm tracks) in the North Atlantic and its possible relation to solar activity. The variations of storm track latitudes in three regions of the North Atlantic were compared: (1) the western North Atlantic (60–40°W), which is a region of intensive formation and development of extratropical cyclones; (2) the Icelandic Low region (30–10°W), where cyclones usually reach the stage of the maximal development and their occurrence is the highest; (3) the North Atlantic region to the east of the Greenwich meridian (0–20°E), where cyclone filling processes intensify. It was found that secular variations (~80–100 years) in storm track latitudes, which may be connected with the solar Gleissberg cycle, strongly dominate in the western North Atlantic, weaken in the Icelandic Low region and disappear east of Greenwich. The oscillations of storm track latitudes, with periods close to the Sun’s magnetic Hale cycle, are a characteristic feature for all the studied regions. Storm tracks were found to shift noticeably to the north in even (according to the Zurich numbering) solar cycles and slightly to the south in odd ones. This effect is most pronounced in the Icelandic Low region and weakens sharply east of Greenwich. A possible mechanism of the detected effects seems to include variations in intensity of the stratospheric polar vortex influencing the position of the polar jet, and then the direction of cyclone movement.