At some time in the twenty-first century the USA will start the transition into an economy with no human work. After the inflection point, job destruction will be greater than job creation and overall employment will decline. Once the decline starts it will continue and human employment over the next several centuries will approach a very small fraction of current employment, perhaps even zero. This book deals with the transition, not the end result. Automation can be applied to physical processes and information processes. Physical process automation is the subject of Chap. 4 and information process automation is the subject of Chap. 5 . Two types of automation are considered in the book. Programmable automation, that is, automation whose steps are defined by rules, and trainable automation, that is, automation by an algorithm that has been trained over a large body of data. Both chapters review progress in each type of automation. Progress is being made towards information process automation in the private sector. To promote efficiency and teamwork innovations have been made in integrating computer communication networks. Most of the progress in automating business information processes has been made using programmable automation. The platform economy is discussed and its focus on consumer behavior forecasting and the resulting privacy problems with surveillance. Progress in the public section and households is also considered. The chapter ends with a consideration of the current impact of physical and information process automation on employment.

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Impact on Information Processes

  • Alfred L. Norman

摘要

At some time in the twenty-first century the USA will start the transition into an economy with no human work. After the inflection point, job destruction will be greater than job creation and overall employment will decline. Once the decline starts it will continue and human employment over the next several centuries will approach a very small fraction of current employment, perhaps even zero. This book deals with the transition, not the end result. Automation can be applied to physical processes and information processes. Physical process automation is the subject of Chap. 4 and information process automation is the subject of Chap. 5 . Two types of automation are considered in the book. Programmable automation, that is, automation whose steps are defined by rules, and trainable automation, that is, automation by an algorithm that has been trained over a large body of data. Both chapters review progress in each type of automation. Progress is being made towards information process automation in the private sector. To promote efficiency and teamwork innovations have been made in integrating computer communication networks. Most of the progress in automating business information processes has been made using programmable automation. The platform economy is discussed and its focus on consumer behavior forecasting and the resulting privacy problems with surveillance. Progress in the public section and households is also considered. The chapter ends with a consideration of the current impact of physical and information process automation on employment.