The advent to power of President Trump brings critical shifts in global power and profit, with major implications for war and peace in Ukraine and in Gaza. In some respects, this changes the entire global calculus, in others it is accelerates existing trends, for instance towards rearmament, garrison states, a more multipolar world order, the decline of the development paradigm, and the marginalisation of climate action. The immediate danger for Ukraine is that it will be forcibly dragged into an unjust and unstable peace with Russia. Israel’s ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza is being put in reverse with the Trump administration’s collusion and ethnic cleansing in both Gaza and the West Bank in back on the agenda. The people of Ukraine and Gaza will be even more at risk from violence, whilst the global order cracks further apart.