To mitigate the effects of climate change, the European Union (EU) formally adopted the Carbon Boundary Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2022. Developed countries intend to adopt similar measures. It therefore remains to see whether China can meet these challenges. Using a Stock-Flow-Consistent macroeconomic model and four types of agents (firms, house-holds, banks and the government), this paper explored the potential health-economic synergies under 13 scenarios in 2019–2060, including three cli-mate mitigation policies (carbon emission trading market (CET), carbon taxes (CT), green subsidies (GSUB)), and firms’ adaptive investment behavior. An agent-based model (ABM) is developed to explore the impact of peer effects among household on policy effectiveness. Main findings are as follows: First, CBAM only in EU is predicted to have non-significant health-economic impacts on Chinese socio-economic systems. However, a world-wide CBAM could have significant negative impacts on Chinese financial stability. Second, compared with current CET (Baseline), CET (High) policy does not provide significant health benefits, while leading to a 0.1% lower total GDP. CT policy has health synergies due to abatement effects, resulting in a 0.28% reduction in labor productivity damage, while GSUB has economic benefits, resulting in a 0.15% increase in total GDP. Third, corporate adaptation investments have significant health-mitigation synergies, while increasing risks within the financial system except firm sector. Fourth, peer effects among households amplify the benefits and drawbacks of climate mitigation policies and corporate adaptation investments, leading to faster greening and greater risk of brownfield asset collapse. Portfolio policies should be good choices.

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Health-Economic Synergies of Carbon Emission Reduction Policies

  • Ting Xie

摘要

To mitigate the effects of climate change, the European Union (EU) formally adopted the Carbon Boundary Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2022. Developed countries intend to adopt similar measures. It therefore remains to see whether China can meet these challenges. Using a Stock-Flow-Consistent macroeconomic model and four types of agents (firms, house-holds, banks and the government), this paper explored the potential health-economic synergies under 13 scenarios in 2019–2060, including three cli-mate mitigation policies (carbon emission trading market (CET), carbon taxes (CT), green subsidies (GSUB)), and firms’ adaptive investment behavior. An agent-based model (ABM) is developed to explore the impact of peer effects among household on policy effectiveness. Main findings are as follows: First, CBAM only in EU is predicted to have non-significant health-economic impacts on Chinese socio-economic systems. However, a world-wide CBAM could have significant negative impacts on Chinese financial stability. Second, compared with current CET (Baseline), CET (High) policy does not provide significant health benefits, while leading to a 0.1% lower total GDP. CT policy has health synergies due to abatement effects, resulting in a 0.28% reduction in labor productivity damage, while GSUB has economic benefits, resulting in a 0.15% increase in total GDP. Third, corporate adaptation investments have significant health-mitigation synergies, while increasing risks within the financial system except firm sector. Fourth, peer effects among households amplify the benefits and drawbacks of climate mitigation policies and corporate adaptation investments, leading to faster greening and greater risk of brownfield asset collapse. Portfolio policies should be good choices.