Assessing the Economic Impact of Climate Change on the Agriculture Sector in Morocco
摘要
Climate change poses significant threats to agricultural systems worldwide, and Morocco is no exception. This study assesses the economic impact of climate change on Moroccan agriculture, focusing on key crops and farming regions. Utilizing a combination of climate models and economic analysis, we examine projected changes in temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather events and their implications for agricultural productivity and economic stability. Our methodology includes an extensive literature review to gather climatic, economic, and social data, followed by the collection of climatic data (temperature, precipitation, wind, and sea level) and agricultural data (yields and soil types) across Morocco. Economic data, such as the agricultural sector's contribution to GDP and agricultural product import percentages, are also collected. The DSSAT model links climatic variables with agricultural production to predict yield impacts, and these outputs are fed into CGE or SAM models, incorporating economic indicators and climate scenarios based on the latest IPCC AR6 report. This approach allows for the analysis of how climatic shocks affect Moroccan agriculture and the subsequent economic damages, capturing the interrelations between agricultural productivity and the national economy. Preliminary findings reveal substantial declines in crop yields, agricultural output, and household incomes, particularly impacting rural and less educated urban populations. These reductions in productivity are projected to increase food imports, elevate commodity prices, and exacerbate malnutrition, poverty, and health issues. Long-term projections indicate that climate change will deteriorate key macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, national savings, and disposable income, highlighting the sector's vulnerability. The study underscores the urgent need for effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Policymakers must focus on economically and technically feasible approaches, including improved land use, efficient energy use, and sustainable agricultural practices. Immediate adaptation measures and long-term investments in mitigation are essential to safeguard Morocco's agricultural sector and promote environmental sustainability. This research provides critical insights for policymakers to develop robust frameworks to mitigate the economic impact of climate change on Moroccan agriculture.