This paper presents a comparative analysis of the Twin Deficits Hypothesis in developed and developing economies, exploring the relationship between fiscal deficits and current account deficits. The Twin Deficits Hypothesis suggests that a higher fiscal deficit leads to a larger current account deficit, primarily due to increased domestic consumption and reduced national savings. This study aims to examine the validity and dynamics of this hypothesis in different economic contexts, considering the distinct characteristics of developed and developing economies. Employing a comparative cross-sectional design, the research utilizes data from international sources like the IMF and World Bank, covering a period from 2000 to 2020. The analysis is conducted using econometric models such as the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and Granger Causality tests. The findings reveal notable differences in the relationship between fiscal and current account deficits across developed and developing economies. While developed economies exhibit a more complex and less direct relationship, developing economies show a stronger and more straightforward correlation. The study contributes to the economic literature by providing a nuanced understanding of the Twin Deficits Hypothesis and its implications for economic policy in different contexts. It highlights the need for tailored fiscal and economic policies based on the specific characteristics and needs of an economy, offering insights crucial for policymakers and economists in managing fiscal and external balances in a globalized economic environment.

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The Twin Deficits Hypothesis: A Comparative Study of Developed and Developing Economies

  • Madiha El Maftah,
  • Mehdi Idrissi,
  • Abderrazak El Hiri

摘要

This paper presents a comparative analysis of the Twin Deficits Hypothesis in developed and developing economies, exploring the relationship between fiscal deficits and current account deficits. The Twin Deficits Hypothesis suggests that a higher fiscal deficit leads to a larger current account deficit, primarily due to increased domestic consumption and reduced national savings. This study aims to examine the validity and dynamics of this hypothesis in different economic contexts, considering the distinct characteristics of developed and developing economies. Employing a comparative cross-sectional design, the research utilizes data from international sources like the IMF and World Bank, covering a period from 2000 to 2020. The analysis is conducted using econometric models such as the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and Granger Causality tests. The findings reveal notable differences in the relationship between fiscal and current account deficits across developed and developing economies. While developed economies exhibit a more complex and less direct relationship, developing economies show a stronger and more straightforward correlation. The study contributes to the economic literature by providing a nuanced understanding of the Twin Deficits Hypothesis and its implications for economic policy in different contexts. It highlights the need for tailored fiscal and economic policies based on the specific characteristics and needs of an economy, offering insights crucial for policymakers and economists in managing fiscal and external balances in a globalized economic environment.